By Tom S. Noda
Computerworld Philippines
January 22, 2010

A “ray” of hope still shines for the legislation of the pending cybercrime and Department of ICT (DICT) bills in the Senate, and it’s no other than Ray Anthony Roxas-Chua III, chairman of the Commission on ICT (CICT) – as he remains optimistic of the approvals, despite only six session days remaining for the legislative calendar.

Chua reported that while the DICT bill interpellation was postponed until Monday, the Cybercrime bill was finally introduced on Thursday. He vows to continue pushing for the approval of the bills until the last session day in the Senate.

The CICT chief is overwhelmed by the support coming from different ICT groups in the country and expects them to rally behind him again on Monday’s session. Groups present in the Senate last Thursday came from the leadership and members of the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPA/P), Call Center Association of the Philippines (CCAP), Game Developers Association of the Philippines (GDAP) and the CIO Forum. CICT’s commissioners were also present to respond to interpellations.

“We hope more groups will continue to support us in the last six remaining session days.  Each bill will have to be approved on the 2nd and 3rd readings and reconciled with the House versions in a bicameral conference within that span of time,” Chua said.

Since Jan. 18, Chua vowed to attend until the last session day of the Senate and has been calling for public support especially through his Facebook account, where we would regularly post developments at the sessions.

Chua expressed fears that if the ICT bills don’t pass in the Senate, lawmakers would have to start from scratch in the next administration.

CICT’s existence is said to be “fragile” since it was only created through an executive order (EO) by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2001. The next president can easily remove it if it does not become a department.

Arroyo, in her last state of the nation (SONA) address last July, called for DICT’s creation in order to further improve the local BPO and tourism sectors in the Philippines. It is a development that has been clamored for almost eight years already.

Senator Edgardo Angara recently told Computerworld Philippines that the conversion of CICT into a government department is “a must” in order to have focus on the issue of policy direction of related government agencies such as the Department of Science and technology (DOST), Telecommunications Office (Telof), National Telecommunications Commission (NTC), and National Computer Center (NCC).

According to a recent study by research firm Ovum, the creation of a DICT in the Philippines could rally the local ICT economy around a maximum of four capability areas, they are medical and legal transcription, engineering, software-as-a-service (SaaS), including building businesses around open source technology.

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By Maxwell Cooter
CIO (UK)
January 19, 2010

LONDON - A third of enterprises are looking to move to desktop virtualization, according to research from desktop services specialist Centrix. More than three-quarters of the respondents said that cost reduction was the prime driver for the move to the technology. 

According to Lewis Gee, vice president sales and marketing at Centrix said that emphasis on cost reduction was surprising. “I think a couple of years ago, customers were looking to improve the desktop experience, but perhaps as a result of the economic situation, companies have been looking to cut costs.”

Gee said that this was not as straightforward as it might be. “The problem with cost reduction is that it’s very hard to calculate cost savings because companies tend to take a ‘lift and drop’ approach to desktop virtualisation where they move all users to the technology regardless whether it’s the best approach.” He added that companies should take a more measured approach and identify the appropriate candidates for desktop virtualisation. “It won’t be appropriate for everyone,” he said. “Some users are good candidates for VDI , some people want thick applications on their desktop, some might benefit from more traditional terminal services.”  

The other aspect of desktop virtualisation is that customers are more aware of the differing technologies said Gee. “They now know that VDI is not the only game in town,” he added.

He pointed out that organizations can expect problems in the future as desktop virtualisation becomes more prevalent with companies having to deal with the management and performance issues generated by growing use of the technology.

Analysts endorse this thinking. “Managing a changing infrastructure is one of the biggest challenges that companies will face as they move forward,” commented Roy Illsley, senior analyst at Ovum. “Organisations deploying more than one application model should look at how they can bring together multiple application streams and manage them in a technology agnostic framework. By aggregating their applications together into one environment, companies can pick and choose the application delivery methods that best suit their needs at any one time, ensure cost reduction promises are met and that the user experience is the same whatever back-end infrastructure is used.”

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
October 21, 2009

Following Apple’s release of its mobile application store for the iPod Touch and iPhone in 2008, a number of providers have sprung up to take a share of the mobile app market, analysts at consulting firm Ovum said in a press statement Monday.

Despite positive outlook for the rest of the market, Ovum said Apple will steal lead the mobile app providers globally, constituting around 70% of the whole application download market this year.

This lead, however, will not enjoy a steady rise, as the firm predicts a 20% loss in market share by 2014, given the emergence of new competitors in the mobile application market.

“The global market will grow by a CAGR of 153% between 2008 and 2011, but will drop to around 33% between 2011 and 2014. In brief, we believe that a number of substitutes will emerge for application downloads, including browser-based services,” it said.

Ovum added that while the hype for mobile applications is going strong, consumer willingness to pay will still determine the size of the market. Early on, however, high-end applications are getting much of the limelight, it said.

“Paid-for applications will reach 3.3 billion, up from just under 147 million in 2008,” it explained. “However, this is lower than the growth in free downloads, which are set to grow at a CAGR of 88% over the period.”

Meanwhile, Ovum predicts a steady growth of the mobile app market in the Asia Pacific area as the availability and demand for apps shift from the North American and European regions. “This also explains the heavier initial consumption in North America and Western Europe, where more applications are available. However, we believe that by 2010 or 2011, applications will proliferate in all markets and supply-side issues will have less impact,” it added. — John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
October 21, 2009

While system integrators are far from inching out of the IT space, analysts at consulting firm Ovum said service providers should shape their services around the emerging technology of cloud computing, to which most companies are veering towards nowadays.

Adoption of cloud services is moving at a slow pace, but Ovum analysts said vendors should take advantage of the revenue-generating opportunities the cloud offers in the future. “These steps include becoming an innovator in the development of cloud computing services, and creating and supporting cloud services ecosystems among various IT vendors,” said John Madden, research director, Ovum.

Madden said service providers should keep up with the technology changes in order to avoid the negative impact of these developments and to stay in tune with customer interests. “Global systems integration firms in particular are worried that cloud services could irrevocably alter the SI business as we know it,” he added.

But despite this potentially grim outlook, Madden said there’s no reason to panic for the market for cloud services is still in its infancy stages. ““However, some customers that leverage cloud services in theory will no longer need an SI for complex, time-consuming and costly integration of their internal IT systems,” he added. “Cloud services also could open up new opportunities for services providers to package SI services with consulting and outsourcing, as customers look for guidance and third-party expertise in the delivery of cloud services.” — John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
October 14, 2009

In the mobile operators’ race to capture the still largely untapped WiMax market, global analyst firm Ovum said the catch is turning out to be a competition for the niche instead of mass markets, due largely to price and coverage issues the technology must overcome.

Because WiMax struggled to gain a foothold in the mature markets of Europe, North America and Asia, Ovum expected it to gain ground in the emerging markets. This, however, didn’t turn out to be the case, for the confluence of several factors including cost, coverage, vendor support, and service provider choices limited WiMax to a niche market.

“Two thirds of the 300+ WiMAX networks globally are in the emerging markets of Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Latin America,” said Angel Dobardziev, practice leader, Ovum. “Yet, most emerging market WiMAX operators currently have thousands, or tens of thousands of subscribers, rather than the hundreds of thousands of subscribers that they planned to have at this stage.”

Dobardziev explained that the customer equipment cost of WiMax is still largely more expensive than DSL and HSPA, limiting its patrons to businesses or wealthy households.

Because of this, Ovum predicts that WiMax will remain to be a niche technology in all markets, and would account for less than 5% of 1.5 billion fixed and mobile broadband connections by 2014. “WiMAX coverage will remain mostly in large urban centres where it will compete against DSL, HSPA/EV-DO and in some cases fibre (FTTx) services,” Dobardziev pointed out, adding that DSL and HSPA will remain cost-competitive in the next five years.

Still, Ovum said, WiMax will play a role in worldwide broadband Internet penetration, although its effect won’t be as significant as its predecessors. – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
October 9, 2009
 
While accessing information in the Internet has grown into mythical proportions, it is a complete opposite of mobile search whose development has remained static despite its wide user adoption.

“There is little ‘joy of use’ in the current mobile search user experience,” according to Sarah Burnett, senior analyst of global consulting and advisory firm Ovum, based in London, England.

Mobile search, which refers to the seeking of information in the Internet via mobile phones and other devices, was described by Burnett as still in its “infancy,” wherein the typical user experience leaves much to be desired. She added that with a growing appetite for mobile content, consumers and business users will be looking to mobile search for information or content access and retrieval.

“Vendors and content providers have to recognize that people interact with their mobile phones in very different ways than they do with their PCs,” Burnett said. “The interaction is dictated by the tiny screen, typically awkward keypad and limited on-screen navigation. Given these constraints, navigating a long list of search results is hardly user-friendly.”

The executive also commented that given the rapid evolution of mobile devices and networks in recent years, many are expecting that mobile search would provide slick interfaces and accurate results, but in most cases, they would be disappointed.

“Mobile search should deliver answers, not links,” advised Mark Blowers, also a principal analyst at Ovum.

Blowers explained there is more to mobile search than just browsing. In mobile devices there is an increased need for accuracy, relevancy and contextual results. This is not to say that PC users do not require the same, but on a PC it is much easier to create an advanced search query that improves the probability of getting the right answer.

He noted the need for a simple and easy user interface and user-friendly results is amplified in a mobile device. Already, mobile search tools such as Taptu only list sites that are optimized for mobile viewing.

“As more people switch to mobiles for web access, site sponsors will see their hits decline unless they provide better mobile support,” Blowers said.

Ovum reported that Google and Yahoo have started to offer location-tailored results. Given their Internet search presence, it is not surprising that they are the two leading players in the mobile search market – helped by alliances with mobile service providers that place them as preferred search solutions on web-enabled handsets. Their solutions are optimized for mobile use. And to facilitate speed of delivery, URL and search suggestions appear as a user types.

Yet another vendor, Apple, is said  to provide a good example of how successful location-based search applications can be as there are many offerings within Apple’s App Store that use the handset’s location to provide details of local facilities (such as restaurants) and other tailored information.

“The giants of PC-based search will be difficult to topple. Small technology companies will continue to create niche mobile search applications,” Blowers said. “But brand recognition and deep research and development pockets make existing market leaders obvious favorites in the race for mobile search queries, and ultimately, the associated advertising revenues.” – Tom S. Noda

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
September 24, 2009

Differentiating mobile broadband in emerging markets from that of mature ones will drive its success, a new analysis from global consulting firm Ovum said recently.

The consulting firm said that pragmatism—or approaching the goal in a practical manner—must be the watchword in terms of access to technology, devices, deployment and market approach.

“Operators today are taking a far more pragmatic approach to mobile broadband in emerging markets than in developed markets, focusing more on the service offered (web access) than the technology or device,” it said.

This virtue of pragmatism, Ovum noted, is likewise evident in the approach to deployment of services, although the competitive landscape should dictate the operators’ respective strategies. “Operators should take a more conservative view of technology and service rollouts to ensure demand and profitability before committing too much finance, where competition (or the threat of it) from fixed and mobile operators is limited,” said Steven Hartley, senior analyst, Ovum.

Hartley added that operators should best be “skimming” the most profitable segments of the market if they can. ““If competition already exists in the market then they may be forced into a broader, mass-market approach from launch,” he said.

Customer segmentation, Hartley advised, is the best strategy to use to ensure success in emerging markets. This does not apply, however, to the success of mobile broadband in these areas, for these are still outside the operators’ control. “Governments have a major role to play in providing an environment conducive to success; spectrum policy is the clearest example of this, either through its release to operators or through global harmonisation to benefit from economies of scale,” said Daniel Subramaniam, analyst at Ovum. – John Mark V. Tuazon

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By Computerworld Philippines Staff
September 8, 2009

Despite the ongoing economic crisis, the market for Unified Communications (UC) is expected to grow significantly in the next five years, yet mobile operators are not keen on competing with UC-enabled mobile devices, reported Ovum, a global advisory and consulting firm.

Based on its interview with a number of global wireless operators and UC platform providers, Ovum reported many operators are well aware of the opportunity on UC, but most are holding back from launching services.

Ovum estimates over 16 million enterprise-owned mobile devices will be connected to UC platforms by 2014. The firm said many fixed telecom operators, IT services providers, UC technology vendors and specialists are all eager to take a share.

And based on enterprise feedback, Ovum identified a gap in service provision which should be filled by mobile network operators (MNOs) where they can influence and earn.

Evan Kirchheimer, principal analyst from Ovum, said connecting enterprise mobile devices to a UC platform may be undertaken by enterprise IP telephony vendors. By large, they can be SIs, local IT-oriented VARs, device manufacturers, or by small independent middleware vendors which enable fixed-mobile convergence, he said.

Kirchheimer believes the key for hesitant mobile operators is to focus on SMEs. MNOs have a natural advantage in their strong relationships with SMEs. In contrast, larger businesses most often have complex and varied fixed Private Branch Exchange (PBX) estates, and PBX vendors and large SIs will be in a more natural position to extend UC functionality to mobile devices via the PBX than will MNOs.

He said SMEs will not benefit from such high-end attention, and will be attracted to simpler solution bundles on simple terms. Several operators indicated that they plan to base their UC solutions for SMEs on mobile centrex services, thereby eventually aiming to fully displace fixed handsets with mobile devices in many smaller businesses.

“Centrex-based solutions will not appeal to all, especially larger enterprises with significant fixed investments,” he said. “To attack this base of prospects, mobile operators should develop partnerships with some of those very firms they may one day compete against  IP telephony vendors, local value-added resellers and messaging software vendors, for example, Microsoft.” – Tom S. Noda

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
August 14, 2009

Though some operators are still not inclined to let WiFi-equipped handsets into their networks, consumers nowadays are demanding the technology to be a standard part of smartphones, according to global consulting and advisory firm Ovum.

Ovum’s recent data (collated from DeviceMine and Ovum research) identified 77 smartphone models released by key manufacturers in the sample period. Of these, 59 handsets had GPS (Global Positioning System) capability and 49 had WiFi. This indicates that these technologies are now key features across nearly all smartphones, not just high-end models, said Tim Renowden, analyst at Ovum.

“Some operators still have a reluctance to admit WiFi-equipped handsets onto their networks, but Ovum believes consumers now expect WiFi to be present in smartphones,” Renowden said.

The analyst said both GPS and WiFi remain to be in demand, citing that the widespread availability of GPS (across all of the major smartphone platforms) is great news for developers wishing to deploy location-based applications and services. But still few developers have taken advantage of this beyond basic navigation products.

Ovum’s smartphone capability tracker showed much lower penetration for TV-out capability, although this was of little surprise as it is only recently that most platforms have really possessed the multimedia abilities required to justify its inclusion.

Only the iPhone, Symbian and Windows Mobile platforms produced devices with TV-out, with Samsung in particular being proactive in supporting the feature. Ovum expects TV-out to grow in popularity among media-centric smartphones, along with increasing processing power and screen resolutions.

On the processor front, most smartphones are currently based on ARM11 architecture, but Ovum expects some ARM Cortex A8-based chipsets to appear in devices within the next update, and platforms like Qualcomm’s Snapdragon or Nvidia’s Tegra to emerge later in 2009 as manufacturers seek to add greater multimedia functionality to devices.

Devices based on the ARM Cortex A9 multi-core architecture are expected in 2010.
RIAs and widget frameworks are not Widgets are another buzzword in the industry, but the tracker shows that only around 10% of smartphones support Internet widget frameworks. This is another area where we expect rapid growth in adoption through 2009/10.

Ovum has previously discussed the potential for rich Internet application (RIA) frameworks as application platforms in mobile handsets but the tracker shows how little impact RIAs have so far made on smartphones. Adobe’s Flash and Flash Lite have achieved the best penetration with 41 smartphone models supporting Flash.

Renowden said Symbian dominates the RIA figure, wherein 25 are Symbian-based (all except one of the Symbian handsets released support Flash). Windows Mobile has patchy support for Flash (manufacturers even support it inconsistently across their Windows Mobile portfolios), and iPhone OS and Android currently do not support it at all.

Of the other RIA frameworks tracked (Adobe AIR and Microsoft Silverlight), penetration is zero, indicating that usefulness of these platforms for application developers is still some way off.

APP STORE CHANGES
Renowden reported that Ovum expects a big change in the rise of on-device application stores when it comes to the next version of the smartphone tracker, as platform owners and manufacturers have now began to respond in earnest to the app store buzz.

He describes app stores to be “cooking unevenly.”

“One of the biggest talking points in the industry in the last 12 months has been the rise of on-device application stores. Despite the limitless hype, for the sample period very few devices were released with pre-installed app store clients,” he said. “Apple’s iPhone, HTC’s Android devices and several Nokia handsets (featuring Nokia’s Download! client, not the newer Ovi Store) were the only devices with app stores pre-installed.”

Renowden added on-device app stores have launched on BlackBerry and Palm’s WebOS, Nokia now has Ovi Store, Windows Mobile 6.5 will feature an app store, and a greater proportion of new handsets will feature these clients in the next version of the tracker. – Tom S. Noda

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
August 6, 2009

Amidst the ongoing hype and confusion among customers regarding the potentials of cloud computing, service providers are actually ramping up their services and investing in an impressive pace, global consulting firm Ovum reported Thursday.

In a competitive attempt to capture the infant cloud computing market, Ovum said vendors are striving to differentiate their services by using technologies to improve the delivery experience, and leveraging cloud computing as a means to curb the negative effects of recession.

“Cloud computing continues to dominate discussions among enterprise IT customers as they look for better and more cost-effective ways to operate and deliver IT services,” said John Madden, principal analyst, Ovum. “Although cloud-based services hold great promise for customers and the vendors that offer them, for the vast majority of enterprise customers there is still far too much hype surrounding what constitutes a cloud.”

Madden added that despite the ongoing confusion, cloud computing continues to attract widespread attention due to its potential for cost reduction and matching IT resources for real-life business needs. Because of this, he said, the evolution of the market can bring distinct opportunities to vendors.

“However one views the cloud market, service providers want to remain active participants in the evolution of cloud services,” Madden added. “Even if the hype level in cloud computing remains high, providers fear that not talking about cloud as part of their services portfolio could lead to customers viewing them as also-rans in this evolving market.” – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
July 31, 2009

As the prime spot in the SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) market remains a bone of contention among major players, telcos stand a chance to inch away in the game if they localize their content particularly to SMBs, an analysis from global consulting firm Ovum said recently.

According to Claudio Castelli, senior analyst at Ovum, global companies have the potential to encroach on local telco players’ space, so localizing services especially targeted at SMBs will provide a competitive advantage.

“Existing customer relations and good knowledge of their particular needs will be key to telcos’ ambitions to maintain a broader role in the value chain and avoid the risk of becoming only connectivity providers,” he said.

The need to target SMBs, Castelli said, stems from their desire to source services from one vendor. “Ovum research shows that 65% of SMBs globally prefer to purchase all their fixed and mobile services from a single provider,” he explained, adding that integrating multiple services into end-to-end offerings will add value to their services.

An example of this strategy is SingTel, who recently released a range of ICT packages for SMEs, and recently launched an Innovation Exchange programme to bring application developers into the service provider’s SaaS offerings. “The aim is to combine solutions from global players such as Microsoft, Google and Salesforce.com with local ISVs,” Castelli added. – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
July 27, 2009

Mobile operators positioning themselves as ‘smart enablers’ in the industry must live up to the hype, global analyst firm Ovum warns telcos recently.

In a report entitled “The role of smart enabler: positioning for growth in the open mobile market, dissecting the role of smart enabler,” Ovum said that in order to efficiently take up the role, operators need to view their network assets, communications expertise, customer intelligence and other capabilities as resources that can be marketed to third parties, not just end users.

The analyst firm likewise advised mobile companies to find the most efficient business model to deliver services before adopting this role. “At Ovum, we think the most equitable model is one where there is an element of risk sharing; for example a tiered approach where operators only charge for API access once an application reaches a certain revenue threshold”, said Eden Zoller, principal analyst, Ovum and co-author of the report.

Aside from determining the best business model, Ovum advises the creation of developer ecosystems that can compete with other providers, because “most operators’ developer programs do not compare well to those offered by device/platform vendors and online players,” said Michele Mackenzie, principal analyst, Ovum.

“Mobile operators are not the only players wanting to take on the smart enabler role,” Zoller explained. “Developers and other third parties can turn to device platform vendors like Nokia, Apple, Microsoft and Google. These players offer a number of benefits such as a large addressable market, lower levels of fragmentation with regard to the device and platform, and a trusted consumer brand.”

The last piece of the ‘smart enabler’ puzzle, Ovum suggests, is the application store, which can provide an attractive retail distribution model for developers. “From the operators’ perspective, it can help them to offer a wider range of applications and address the long tail of content, which they have failed to do in the past,” it said. “However, in Ovum’s view, an operator-branded application store is an option for the few. To make a play in this space, operators need, among other things, excellent scale and reach, a developer platform and support program and of course a strong brand.” – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Network service providers are running IP networks ‘hotter’ as Internet traffic reach an all-time high and infrastructure upgrades get postponed due to the recession, global analyst firm Ovum said in a comment on Friday.

Ovum said providers are increasing traffic throughput in networks without upgrading equipment, citing delay of short-term investment projects to help stifle losses due to recession.

The analyst firm explained that providers typically run networks to 40% to 50% capacity, but due to increasing network traffic brought by the “video tsunami,” network utilization is driven up. “They are comfortable that core routers can run without incident at 60% to 70% loading, but once average loading reaches 80% capacity upgrades are needed to ensure high availability,” said John Mazur, principal analyst for network infrastructure, Ovum.

Mazur is uncertain if running IP networks hotter will cause total disruption of services, since the effect of utilizing networks to higher capacities remains to be seen. “Router software is equipped to route around failures, but no one really knows the impact on end-users. We could find out soon, however, if the current trend continues,” he explained.

Ovum advices firms not to trust their mission critical applications to ‘best effort’ Internet, and should only opt for higher quality services. “Our advice is to watch just how hot ISPs can go and monitor the impact on Internet performance – and to not put too much faith in the Internet, as past performance is no guarantee of future results,” Mazur remarked. – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
July 16, 2009

Companies that are only starting to look at improving their processes and eventually cutting costs may already be too late, global advisory firm Ovum announced Wednesday.

Citing the waning of cost-cutting agenda at the upturn of the economy, Ovum advises companies to look for other methods that both cut costs and improve output quality. “Organisations that are only now seeking to improve their IT processes should consider methods that are optimum now and beyond the recession,” said Alexander Simkin, senior analyst, Ovum IT Services practice. “That is, methods that both cut costs and improve quality.”

Simkin said methods that have caught the wave of recession—such as Lean and Agile—are too resource-intensive and take too long to implement. “CFOs don’t realize is that becoming Agile or Lean takes time and requires major change management. If you’re starting from a base of traditional processes, these approaches won’t provide rapid cost reduction,” he remarked.

The Ovum analyst added that auditing and certification of IT process maturity have also attracted renewed interest during the downturn. “These methods provide CIOs with evidence to C-level colleagues and other stakeholders that investments in process improvements are providing returns,” he explained.

Simkin said vendors can still gain a hold of the market by cornering two sectors unscathed by the crisis: the healthcare and defense industry. “Defense and healthcare have been relatively unscathed by the recession, so being able to bid for contracts in those sectors is increasingly important. Hence some of the extra attention that audit methods are currently receiving,” he added. – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Computerworld Philippines Staff
July 10, 2009

The emergence of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and mobile broadband technologies will bring fixed line subscription growth to a standstill by 2014, global analyst Ovum said in a press statement Thursday.

FTTH, which saw widespread adoption in Korea and Japan, is starting to move outside Asia, with countries such as the US, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands taking a keen interest on the new technology, the report said.

The move will be most pronounced in Asia Pacific, it predicts, with FTTH subscriptions overtaking DSL by 2014. Global adoption will figure at 160 million lines by end-2014, it added.

Developing countries such as China and Malaysia will likewise play a big role in the shift. “Even if we take into account an element of government and vendor hype for these markets, Ovum still forecasts a rapid take-up of advanced broadband services in those countries,” said Michael Philpott, practice leader, Ovum consumer team.

Mobile broadband, which is slowly becoming a preferred mode of connection to reach far-off places, is likewise putting pressure on DSL subscriptions. The firm predicts a 65% saturation rate in developed countries due to rapid mobile broadband uptakes.

“Whereas at one time it would have been assumed that investment in broadband would have pushed fixed lines out further, with mobile broadband devices and services becoming more readily available and affordable this will no longer be the case – at least in the medium term,” it said.

DSL providers, according to Ovum, still have potential in markets adopting a mix of NGA technologies. Despite the projected stagnation, the firm predicts 360 million DSL lines in operation by 2014, with Asia Pacific reaching its peak three years earlier. – John Mark V. Tuazon

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Companies shifting focus out of effective risk management stand to lose in the long run, global advisory firm Ovum warned in its press statement Tuesday.

In a report entitled “Managing risk during an economic downturn,” the consulting firm said that the economic downturn has in fact increased the level of risks companies are exposed to, even if they are forced to do more with less. It added that the recent crisis actually exposed such cracks in the old paradigm.

“The financial crisis has provided a very high profile example of how poor risk management practices can severely impact not only a business but also a whole industry sector”, said Helena Schwenk, senior analyst, Ovum and author of the report. “While the banking system recovers and readjusts from the crisis and moves to a more tightly controlled and regulated risk management environment, other industry sectors are advised to take heed of the risk management lessons learnt from this painful episode.”

Companies can effectively handle risks in an enterprise environment, away from the isolated silo approach which tend to become detrimental to the company’s security, it said.

Ovum said much of the past failures were not due to failed risk management, but to lack of understanding and discipline as to how it should be done correctly. The firm pointed out that the inability to have a more holistic view of risk management and the lack of understanding of interdependencies among business risks can ultimately lead to failure in the future.

“The current economic crisis has also underscored the need to treat risk management not just as a strategic ideal, but also as an operational imperative,” Schwenk said. “Businesses need to make sure that risk management trickles down from high-level business strategy, objectives and goals to the operational coalfaces of the organization.” — John Mark V. Tuazon

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By John Mark V. Tuazon

Computerworld Philippines

Voice services continue to herald revenues for global mobile companies despite the virtual rat race to dominate the mobile data market, a report from global analyst firm Ovum said recently.

Voice accounts for 69% of revenues globally and 66% in Asia Pacific, the report said, making it the ‘killer app’ to drive the growth of most telcos around the world. Mobile outgoing minutes would likewise rise by 155% in the period between 2008 and 2014, but voice revenues will rise by a small 26%, it predicts.

Following the global crisis, however, the firm adjusts its forecast for the next few years, saying the $1 trillion mobile services revenue it expected to be breached by 2010 will now be reached in 2011. In the same manner, it has adjusted its 2009 revenue growth forecast to 8%, down from a previously optimistic 10%.

“The recessionary impact on mobile in Asia will be relatively muted and led by China and India as mobile service revenue continues to grow”, says Nathan Burley, analyst at Ovum. “By 2014, Ovum expects total Asia-Pacific mobile operator service revenues to reach $326 billion.”

Emerging markets drive growth in the mobile area, Ovum said, as they forecast 6.42 billion connections by 2014. CAGR (Cumulative Annual Growth Rate) in Asia Pacific is similarly expected to grow by 10%, with penetration reaching 78%, it added.

Population growth, on the other hand, continues to be a factor in reeling in new connections from heavily-populated countries such as China and India, which Ovum predicts will account for 30% of total connections by 2014.

The same can’t be said, however, for developed nations whose markets are starting to get saturated. Multiple SIM ownership and thorough data-centric device adoption will drive the growth in these areas, the firm predicts.

“Efficient networks and competitive pricing will be critical in both highly saturated mature markets and low-ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) emerging markets,” explained Steven Hartley, senior analyst, Ovum.

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By Tom S. Noda
Computerworld Philippines
June 25, 2009

Trust among software vendors are under strain once again as customers are being warned against spying attempts of suppliers and equipment manufacturers.

According to global advisory and consulting firm Ovum, some undocumented privileged administrator accounts have been discovered in new network routers belonging to two telecoms service providers.

Ovum said the attacks can have serious consequences for enterprises as they threaten the commercial health of the communications service provider and its major customers. Yet these illicit activities also have implications for national security whenever carrier networks are attacked, said Graham Titterington, information security principal analyst at Ovum.

“This is not the first time that we have seen attempts to hack into enterprise and carrier networks by infiltrating network routers” Titterington said, noting that at the time of the Athens Olympic Games, rogue software in four mobile switching centers illegally intercepted calls by Greek politicians, including the Prime Minister, for a year. After the discovery of the software, both the network operator and the equipment vendor were fined several million euros.

And only recently, Titterington said the US government detected an attack on IT systems in the Pentagon in 2007, wherein 1,500 computers were found to have been compromised.

Titterington commented the latest attacks on the carrier networks raises serious concern about the motives of the people or organizations that created them. He said such “back doors” could be used for both active and passive attacks on the networks. They call into question the reliability of the vendor and its products.

The Ovum analyst noted that risk is much greater in this age of IP-based communications than it was with traditional telecommunications networks because network control and payload are not segregated.

“There must be a relationship of trust between vendors and their customers, ideally based on a culture of partnership,” he said. “Customers, in both the service provider and enterprise communities, need to place trust at the top of their criteria when selecting suppliers.”

Ovum’s report highlighted that enterprises and carriers alike are dependent on the integrity of their suppliers and the trust relationship is crucial to both parties.

“Vendors who fail to establish their integrity should be struck off supplier short lists,” Titterington said, adding enhanced network audit procedures would uncover this spook account type of exploit, but a vendor hacker could turn to embedding the spyware in the code of the product, making it much more difficult to detect.

“Insofar as this threat impacts on critical national infrastructure and national security we can expect governments to take an increasing interest in this issue,” he said. “However any response will be fragmented due to the limits of jurisdiction of any government. The United States is likely to lead the way in government oversight. President Obama’s recent announcement on cyber security shows that the current administration is giving a much higher priority to the problem than previous administrations.

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By John Mark V. Tuazon
Computerworld Philippines

The treatment of SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture) as a special case confined to elite architects and developers duplicates costs for IT companies, new research data from consulting firm Ovum reveals.

The report, entitled ALM (application lifecycle management) and SOA: Lifecycles in a Parallel Universe, posits that the push to apply governance to the SOA lifecycle creates a separate domain of governance apart from the software development lifecycle (SDLC).

“Full blown SOA governance often recreates duplication that SOA architecture was supposed to eliminate,” said Tony Baer, senior analyst, Ovum. “The disconnect of SOA from the mainstream of the software development lifecycle has contributed to the backlash that it has suffered over the past 12 – 18 months.”

The SDLC, the report said, can benefit from SOA governance practices, which could improve application lifecycle management. “Examples include architected development that design services for potential reuse, or utilization of service contracts that provide explicit awareness of service performance at runtime,” it said.

However, Baer noted, adjustments have to be made to SDLC practices to fully benefit from SOA lifecycle governance. “Middle ground approaches that apply principles of agile development to enterprise architectural practices are the solution,” he explained.

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By John Mark V. Tuazon
Computerworld Philippines

As mobile unified communications (UC) services begin to enter the market, global analysis and consulting firm Ovum advises vendors to delve into the profiles and requirements of businesses to suit their offerings based on the firms’ specific needs.

Claudio Castelli, senior analyst, Ovum, commended in a statement the efforts of providers in introducing mobile UC solutions to the market. “But they are not putting enough effort into understanding the detailed business requirements of each company,” she said.

Castelli said these solutions need to go beyond the “fancy functionality” and move on to intricate needs of companies. “It is important to develop a better understanding of the factors that motivate people to connect, share and collaborate with each other,” she added.

The integration of mobile UCs will only benefit companies if it is aligned with their cultural and social character, Castelli said. “Mobile UC will bring substantial benefits to enterprises but not every company will value it in the same way,” she added.

Ovum released its advisory after several companies—such as Cisco and Research in Motion—started promoting the ecosystems that drive the mobile UC to the market. Castelli noted, however, that the recent global recession will delay the adoption period of mobile UC services as companies look to cut costs.

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By Computerworld Philippines staff

According to a new report from Ovum, there will be an increased uptake of IT services in Philippines even during this slowdown due to various initiatives taken by the Philippine government.

In the “IT services market in the Philippines: a fledgling ready to take flight” report, Ovum outlines that the government initiatives to establish a central credit worthiness system, and its investments in the education sector will increase the IT services demand in the country.

“While currently Philippines is a small IT services market in revenue terms, less attractive than other South East Asian countries such as Singapore, Vietnam, or Malaysia, it offers good opportunities for vendors focused on the public sector,” explained Deepika Chaubey, managing analyst at Ovum and author of the report.

The Philippine government plans to invest in various initiatives involving technology adoption. It is focusing on the development of a central credit worthiness database. This includes establishing a central authority for compiling data from financial institutions, to facilitate easier verification of a borrower’s credit worthiness. Once the database is fully built, there will be a sharp increase in the issuance of credit cards in the country, which will further increase the demand for data management, networking and security services.

The government is also investing in the education sector and has initiated many technology-based programs such as the computerization of all public schools and adoption of e-learning in the urban areas that are scheduled to be completed by 2010. The Philippine Department of Education signed a five-year deal with Oracle in October 2008 worth $380 million to roll out Oracle’s ThinkQuest technology program (an online learning platform) for 500 public elementary schools. The government’s intention to modernize all 6,000 public schools, and several private ones as well, will offer numerous opportunities to IT vendors. Once all the public schools are computerized, the demand for Web-based learning platforms, education management systems, assessment and data services, and networking services should increase.

“The various initiatives by the government will provide significant opportunities to IT services vendors in the region, and services such as implementation, integration and security will witness increased demand,” added Chaubey. “As most of the Philippine-based vendors are focusing on providing offshore services, there are opportunities for international IT vendors to cater to the domestic demand.”

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